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Add joint posterior scoring and finite adaptive acquisition - #12

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robinthibaut merged 2 commits into
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robin/posterior-scoring-acquisition
Oct 6, 2026
Merged

robinthibaut merged 2 commits into
mainfrom
robin/posterior-scoring-acquisition

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Summary

  • Ignore zero-probability draws in weighted CRPS calculations.
  • Add an empirical joint energy score with strict shape and numerical validation.
  • Add finite adaptive acquisition and stopping over supplied joint atoms, with horizons zero through two, explicit costs and immutable policy trees.
  • Preserve the existing ranking exports and document the new APIs and their limits.

Validation

All 267 tests pass, including independent pairwise and rational-policy oracles and an identical-marginal dependence control. Ruff lint and formatting checks pass.

These APIs evaluate the supplied finite distributions. They do not establish calibration, choose coordinate scales or supply an application-specific loss model. Floating-point representability and combinatorial complexity limits are documented.

@robinthibaut
robinthibaut merged commit 379fad7 into main Oct 6, 2026
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@robinthibaut
robinthibaut deleted the robin/posterior-scoring-acquisition branch October 8, 2026 15:48
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